January 2023 OKR Meeting Notes

1) Community Vendor: Samantha Conkey w/ Capital Title

2) Welcome!

• Elken Miller
• Jan Daum

3) Financial Controller Position Overview

Marelise's title is now Financial Controller. She is in charge of bookkeeping, collecting tax documents, distributing tax documents, "missing checks/payments", and all leasing. We are transitioning her into taking care of all Disbursement Authorizations.

4) Listing Coordination / CTC / Courier Overview Recap

5) 2022 Bramlett Partners Year in Review

6) 2022 Austin Real Estate Statistics

[gallery link="file" ids="66084,66085,66082,66086,66088,66089,66090"]

Normal Market Behavior:

• The spring market sees price increases of 8-9% vs the previous winter. The winter of that year sees prices decline by ~3%. This nets us Austin's normal 5-6% annual appreciation.
• Pending Units peak in April/May and there is a straight line decline to Dec/Jan, where we see pending units decline ~40% over the peak.

2022 Behavior:

• The spring market saw prices increase 18.5% vs the previous winter. The winter of 2022 saw prices drop by ~18%, which more than wiped out the year's gains.
• Pending Units peaked in March-May. There was a relatively straight line decline to Dec, where pending units declined 42%.

Takeaways

• There were a lot of abnormalities in 2022, but the glaring abnormality was the extreme increase in prices followed by the extreme drop.
• This was caused almost entirely by rising mortgage rates. Buyers' purchasing power dropped.

What do we think will happen in 2023?

• We're cautiously optimistic that things will normalize. This means that the market will start to return to a market that looks like 2019.
  • Mortgage rates have stabilized. They will hopefully fall some in the spring.
  • Monthly payment affordability is now more affordable than peak 2022.
• We're cautiously optimistic that prices will increase from the Winter 2022-2023 lows.
• We expect Under Contract units to peak in April/May with a straight line decline to the following winter.
• We expect prices to peak in 2023 in May/June and then fall somewhat into the winter.
• This doesn't mean that things will be great or that they will be as good as 2019. It means that 2023 will likely be better than Q3/Q4 2022 and a rebuilding year for the market.

Leading Indicators

• CPI Report / Fed Behavior / Mortgage Rates: These are the primary drivers of the market shift.
• # of Pending Units YOY and MOM: We want to see a diminishing decline in YOY Pending Units and we want to see normal MOM behavior.
• Month Over Month (Not Year Over Year) Average Sold Price: We want to see a return to normal seasonality.

We are highly prioritizing a concise newsletter/report covering all of this information.

7) December 2022 Key Results

$1M+ Closings

1. Kasey = $2.3M
2. Tara = $2.2M
3. Luis = $2.2M
4. Jeremy = $1.8M
5. Trey = $1.4M
6. Katie = $1.4M
7. Will = $1.4M
8. Linda = $1.3M
9. Joe = $1.1M
10. Lindsey = $1.1M
11. Craig = $1M

$1M+ Contracts

1. Lindsey = $3M
2. Luis = $2.2M
3. Tara = $1.6M
4. Lynn = $1M
5. Craig = $1M

Leading Indicators

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• Top Talker: Jeremy V w/ 2hrs 16min
• Top Texter: Gina w/ 138 text messages
• Top Client Portal User: Lynn w/ 89 points!
• Top Client Portal Searcher: Tara w/ 78 new searches!

8) What we're working on:

1. The office permitting is plodding along. We have a complete set of designs and should have site plan approval by this summer.
2. Because of the delays in the new office, we are considering temporary office solutions. We will have a decision this by Q2 and it will depend on overall market conditions.
3. Client Portal improvements. We've increased our budget 50% for 2023.
4. Monitoring the market and leading indicators.
5. Review contest! We will have a survey to you today to see who would like to participate. We will send information to everyone who is interested in participating!

9) Market Watch Discussion