May 2021 Statistics: First Look

We’ve run first look statistics for the month, which are available below. But first: Is buyer demand beginning to shift? We’ll take a deeper look at this later in the month, but we’ve observed the following:

• Mortgage applications are at their lowest level since Feb 2020.
• Our internal marketing data and industry surveys (to be released later this week) indicate a softening of buyer demand.
• Anecdotal stories like 2 hour waits at AIBA indicate that buyer priorities may be shifting as the pandemic draws to an end.

It’s important to understand that these are very early indicators that can predict future inventory trends, but they do not guarantee those trends, and timing is still difficult to predict. Likewise, a softening of demand does not indicate prices decreasing. Our internal discussions are over how much prices will continue to increase and we believe that a softening of demand will simply return us closer to historical appreciation rates in the 5-10% range.

May 2021 Statistics
Unsurprisingly, the May 2021 sales statistics were phenomenal.

The Tri-County Area saw Avg Sold Price increase +46.25% and Median Sold Price increase +42.64%. It’s now safe to say that a comfortable budget to buy in the Austin Metro Area is ~$500k. The City of Austin saw just as phenomenal growth with Avg Sold Price increasing +47.98% to just under $760k and Median Sold Price increasing +41.18% to $600k. Days on Market in both areas now sits at 5 days.

This month, we began tracking Month Over Month (MOM) average price trends. In the past, we’ve ignored MOM because the real estate market is so seasonal. It’s very normal to see prices ~5% higher in the spring/summer than you will in the fall/winter. However, we’re now seeing incredible, rapid growth. We wanted to see what is happening to Avg Sold Price on a monthly basis. Unsurprisingly, it’s moving up quickly. Since January, we’ve seen prices increase +29.42 in the Tri-County Area and +27.02% in the City of Austin.

What does it all mean?
We believe that we’re settling into “new pricing” for the Austin metro. Because we’re continuing to see prices increase on a monthly basis, we don’t yet know what that new pricing is. We’re waiting for 2-3 months of relatively consistent pricing and we’ll then hesitantly report “this looks like the new pricing.” We believe that we’ll see consistent appreciation in the 5-10% range after we settle into that new pricing.

As always, if there’s anything that we can help you with your specific situation, please don’t hesitate to reach out!